A team of researchers from The Imperial College London report in the journal Science that the Zika virus outbreak new possibilities will subside within the next three years. The reason is because at that time the virus spreads were difficult due to live a little of the human population who have not been infected.
The Zika virus known to be unable to infect two times the same person so that if the human population numbers ever infected already on the threshold, then the spread of the virus itself will start dimming. Until a few years later then start many more babies born and formed the new generation, so the virus can come back when at the moment it is not yet an effective vaccine also exist.
The prediction is taken after the researchers devised a model of the spread of data existing in Latin America. Could not be ascertained how accurate predictions because researchers only a look trend of the current deployment of just assuming there would be no change.
Study leader Professor Neil Ferguson said in this context the existence of dispersion prevention efforts done thus will increasingly lengthen the duration of the epidemic.
“Slow down occurrence of transmission between person to person means that the longer the population will reach the level of herd immunity (immunity of groups) is needed so that the transmission can be stopped. This could also mean that the distance between the epidemic will be getting shorter, “said Prof Ferguson as cited from the BBC, Friday (15/7/2016).
Because there are still many things not known about Zika, molecular virologist Jonathan Ball commented that the predictions actually could not be ascertained its accuracy. Need further study to find out the key properties of Zika virus itself before there could be predicted.
“Frankly” there are still many important scientific facts about Zika which are not, yet we know making it impossible to predict with certainty what will happen,” said Ball
“The key questions unanswered, such as how many people have been infected, how long the duration of immunity in people who have been infected, whether in the past the exposed to the virus that resembles Dengue can affect susceptibility to Zika, and whether there is a reservoir of the virus in the wild.”